When Tony Romo sees DeMarco Murray, he sees an NFL rushing champion.
When Jason Garrett sees Murray, he sees an NFL rushing champion.
When agent Pat Dye sees Murray, he sees an NFL rushing champion.
When the Cowboys’ fan base sees Murray, it sees an NFL rushing champion.
But when Stephen Jones sees Murray, he sees a 27-year-old running back.
That’s because as guardian of the Dallas Cowboys salary cap, in the best interest of the franchise, Jones must focus on a player’s future, not his past. What’s his value going forward?
Murray was the league’s best running back in 2014, winning his first NFL rushing crown by almost 500 yards. A commitment to the run — and thus a commitment to Murray — propelled the Cowboys from a decade of mediocrity into Super Bowl contention.
His breakout could not have come at a better time for Murray — the final season of his rookie contract. Now he’s in a position to cash in. He can become a free agent this month.
As a third-round draft choice, Murray did not receive the big money at the front end of his career. So this will be the one time in life Murray can command top dollar for his football services. He’s looking for a long-term deal that would guarantee his security. Think five years.
That would take Murray through the 2019 season. He’ll be 31 then. And that’s the concern Jones has.
The Cowboys could have placed a franchise tag on the 2014 NFL Offensive Player of the Year. That would have locked Murray up for the 2015 season at a premium price — $10.9 million. But they opted to franchise Dez Bryant instead.
The Cowboys would have jumped at the chance to sign Murray to a two-year contract. Even a three-year deal might be welcome. But a five-year deal? Running backs rarely get better as they get older.
The Cowboys would likely love the first year of the deal and may come to enjoy the second year, possibly even the third. But those fourth and fifth years could be regrettable.
That’s how the Cowboys got into this salary-cap mess in the first place. For years they gave big money to players heading into their 30s hoping they could stay great forever. Instead, they descended and became salary-cap hits — big salary-cap hits — waiting to happen.
Think DeMarcus Ware.
And there is less future in paying runners than pass rushers.
Jim Brown, Jim Taylor, O.J. Simpson, Floyd Little, Charles White, Eric Dickerson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Edgerrin James and Jamal Lewis are all former NFL rushing champions. Brown, Taylor, Simpson, Little, Dickerson and Jerome Bettis all are Hall of Famers, and there may be busts in Canton waiting for Tomlinson and James as well.
Every one of those backs rushed for 1,000 yards at the age of 29 — and none ever got back to that threshold in the remaining years of their careers.
And you can add Pro Bowlers Roger Craig, Stephen Davis, Michael Turner and Steven Jackson to the group that rushed for 1,000 at 29 but never again.
The wall for an NFL running back has historically been 29 years of age. And some of the great ones don’t even get there.
Marshall Faulk was the most complete and arguably the best running back in the NFL at the turn of the 2000 decade. He was a key element in the Greatest Show on Turf that took the St. Louis Rams to two Super Bowls. He was rewarded for his career with a bust in Canton. Faulk rushed for 1,382 yards in 2001 at age 28. He never got back to 1,000 in any of the final four seasons of his career.
Like Murray, Larry Johnson was a battering ram back for the Kansas City Chiefs during the middle of the 2000 decade. He won an AFC rushing title with 1,750 yards at age 26 in 2005, then followed with a 1,786-yard season in 2006. He played five more seasons and never got back to 1,000 in any of them.
Clinton Portis was a two-time Pro Bowler who rushed for 1,487 yards for the Washington Redskins in 2008 at age 27. Like Johnson, he never got back to 1,000 again and was done by the time he reached 30.
Some backs burst through the wall. Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Walter Payton, Tony Dorsett and Thurman Thomas all rushed for 1,000-yard seasons in their early 30s. All are Hall of Famers.
When you see Murray, do you see Emmitt Smith, whose greatness ended at age 32? Do you see LaDainian Tomlinson, whose greatness ended at 29? Or Marshall Faulk, whose greatness ended at 28? Or Clinton Portis, whose greatness ended at 27?
In the short term, the Cowboys want and need Murray. But there could be long-term financial ramifications for that short-term benefit. And that’s what Jones has been mulling since the end of the season.
Fiscal responsibility is a heavy burden to bear for a franchise. Jones must weigh past performance of DeMarco Murray against future projections.
RUNNING BACK OPTIONS: RBs on the roster and on the market and on the clock
On the payroll – Running backs currently on the roster:
RB |
6-0 |
210 |
23 |
Oklahoma State |
|
RB |
5-8 |
195 |
25 |
North Texas |
|
RB |
6-0 |
217 |
27 |
Oklahoma |
On the Dallas Cowboys practice squad:
RB |
5-9 |
207 |
24 |
Virginia Tech |
Top running back prospects eligible for 2015 NFL Draft:
20 |
1 |
Georgia |
Jr |
6-1 |
222 |
1 |
|
23 |
2 |
Wisconsin |
rJr |
6-1 |
215 |
1 |
|
46 |
3 |
Nebraska |
Sr |
5-9 |
205 |
2 |
|
51 |
4 |
Boise State |
rJr |
6-0 |
221 |
2 |
|
56 |
5 |
Miami (Fla.) |
Jr |
5-9 |
207 |
2 |
|
61 |
6 |
Indiana |
Jr |
5-11 |
206 |
2 |
|
66 |
7 |
Northern Iowa |
rSr |
6-1 |
224 |
2-3 |
|
79 |
8 |
Michigan State |
rSr |
6-0 |
208 |
2-3 |
|
85 |
9 |
Alabama |
Jr |
6-1 |
226 |
3 |
|
89 |
10 |
Minnesota |
Sr |
5-11 |
229 |
3 |
|
102 |
11 |
South Carolina |
Jr |
5-9 |
217 |
3-4 |
|
119 |
12 |
Southern California |
rJr |
6-0 |
221 |
3-4 |
|
129 |
13 |
Auburn |
Sr |
5-10 |
212 |
4 |
|
144 |
14 |
LSU |
Sr |
5-8 |
213 |
4-5 |
|
167 |
15 |
Florida State |
Sr |
6-1 |
230 |
5 |
|
175 |
16 |
Louisville |
rSr |
6-2 |
234 |
5 |
|
180 |
17 |
Texas |
Sr |
5-11 |
224 |
5-6 |
|
185 |
18 |
Florida |
Jr |
6-2 |
231 |
5-6 |
|
204 |
19 |
Southern Illinois |
Sr |
5-9 |
205 |
6 |
|
220 |
20 |
Mississippi State |
rJr |
5-8 |
217 |
6-7 |
|
239 |
21 |
Texas A&M |
Jr |
5-7 |
195 |
7 |
|
271 |
22 |
Louisville |
rSr |
5-8 |
218 |
7-FA |
|
279 |
23 |
North Dakota State |
rSr |
6-0 |
217 |
7-FA |
|
298 |
24 |
Missouri |
rSr |
5-8 |
193 |
7-FA |
|
310 |
25 |
Central Michigan |
Sr |
5-9 |
215 |
7-FA |
|
324 |
26 |
Colorado State |
rJr |
5-7 |
199 |
7-FA |
|
337 |
27 |
LSU |
Sr |
6-0 |
226 |
7-FA |
Free Agent running backs looking for a contract:
PLAYER (46) |
POS. |
AGE |
FROM |
TO |
2014 CAP HIT |
STATUS |
RB |
31 |
SF |
TBD |
$6,450,000 |
UFA |
|
RB |
27 |
BUF |
TBD |
$5,916,666 |
UFA |
|
RB |
31 |
ATL |
TBD |
$4,166,666 |
UFA |
|
RB |
27 |
SD |
TBD |
$3,612,000 |
UFA |
|
RB |
27 |
MIA |
TBD |
$3,000,000 |
UFA |
|
RB |
29 |
DET |
TBD |
$2,944,444 |
UFA |
|
RB |
29 |
NYJ |
TBD |
$2,750,000 |
UFA |
|
RB |
25 |
NO |
TBD |
$2,359,875 |
UFA |
|
RB |
23 |
NYG |
TBD |
$1,823,046 |
UFA |
|
RB |
27 |
OAK |
TBD |
$1,718,000 |
UFA |
|
RB |
27 |
DAL |
TBD |
$1,596,625 |
UFA |
|
RB |
26 |
WAS |
TBD |
$1,548,563 |
UFA |
|
RB |
26 |
NYJ |
TBD |
$1,531,125 |
UFA |
|
RB |
25 |
ATL |
TBD |
$1,478,750 |
UFA |
|
RB |
25 |
NE |
TBD |
$1,101,275 |
UFA |
|
RB |
28 |
CIN |
TBD |
$1,050,000 |
UFA |
|
RB |
26 |
NE |
TBD |
$939,750 |
UFA |
|
RB |
29 |
NYG |
TBD |
$855,000 |
UFA |
|
RB |
29 |
ATL |
TBD |
$762,500 |
UFA |
|
RB |
26 |
GB |
TBD |
$645,000 |
UFA |
|
RB |
32 |
TEN |
TBD |
$635,000 |
UFA |
|
RB |
25 |
ARI |
TBD |
$635,000 |
UFA |
|
RB |
29 |
BAL |
TBD |
$570,000 |
UFA |
|
RB |
27 |
MIA |
TBD |
$569,118 |
UFA |
|
RB |
28 |
IND |
TBD |
$486,353 |
UFA |
|
RB |
26 |
KC |
TBD |
$437,000 |
UFA |
|
RB |
33 |
SD |
TBD |
$402,353 |
UFA |
|
RB |
28 |
SF |
TBD |
$265,588 |
UFA |
|
RB |
25 |
MIA |
TBD |
$234,706 |
UFA |
|
RB |
28 |
NYG |
TBD |
$134,118 |
UFA |
|
RB |
27 |
CLE |
TBD |
$134,117 |
UFA |
|
RB |
26 |
SF |
TBD |
$75,882 |
UFA |
|
RB |
26 |
PIT |
TBD |
– |
UFA |
|
RB |
25 |
JAC |
TBD |
$645,000 |
RFA |
|
RB |
25 |
PHI |
TBD |
$573,334 |
RFA |
|
RB |
26 |
NO |
TBD |
$571,667 |
RFA |
|
RB |
27 |
TB |
TBD |
$570,000 |
RFA |
|
RB |
25 |
IND |
TBD |
$570,000 |
RFA |
|
RB |
25 |
DAL |
TBD |
$570,000 |
RFA |
|
RB |
27 |
MIN |
TBD |
$570,000 |
RFA |
|
RB |
29 |
OAK |
TBD |
$525,000 |
RFA |
|
RB |
28 |
BUF |
TBD |
$167,647 |
RFA |
|
RB |
26 |
CAR |
TBD |
$495,000 |
ERFA |
|
RB |
27 |
STL |
TBD |
$495,000 |
ERFA |
|
RB |
24 |
WAS |
TBD |
$87,353 |
ERFA |
|
RB |
24 |
BAL |
TBD |
$74,117 |
ERFA |
Courtesy: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/running-back/